L’Affaire Petraeus

The theories about links to Benghazi are out there and they offer the simplest explanation (behind, you know, taking the resignation at face value). But, if Petraeus wanted to distance himself from a Democratic administration ahead of a 2016 White House run, and make potentially damaging private information public on his own terms, and early enough to make it ‘old news’ when it came time to formally announce his candidacy, would this be a good way to do it? (Assuming, the affair was something that he thinks would come out sooner or later.) Is there a good way to do something like that?

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2 Responses to L’Affaire Petraeus

  1. John Jacobs says:

    Have you apologized to Nate Silver for your criticism of his scientifically sound poll analysis? How did your partisan hackery fare in comparison?

    • For starters, I believe it was Stu Rothenberg who, a week before the election, announced that anybody who says they know how the election will turnout shouldn’t be taken seriously. Now, to your comment: I don’t believe I ever questioned the scientific soundness of Silver’s analysis. I do believe I questioned 1) the reliability of the underlying poll data (specifically, the reliability of many polls’ assumptions about relative partisan turnout); and 2) how much a backward looking analysis could tell us given the fluidity of the race, Romney’s apparent momentum in the weeks after his historically decisive (according to CNN and Gallup) trouncing of Obama in the domestic policy debate, and the relative lack of historical data points. It seems that the assumptions underlying the ‘Obama friendly’ polls were more accurate. As for momentum, I never took Hurricane Sandy and the optics of the aftermath into consideration, however, many commentators from across the ideological spectrum have explained the final outcome in part by reference to Sandy (pre and post landfall coverage) drowning out Romney’s closing push over the final 10 days and giving Obama a handy excuse for not being able to talk about positive plans for his second term. If not for Sandy, we probably would have quite a bit (as we had started to hear by mid October) about how Obama never put out a second term agenda – neither specific goals nor specific plans for achieving them. As it turned out, we didn’t hear any of that during the final 10 days. That’s the tricky thing about momentum–it can change.

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